Thursday, 3 November 2011

UKIP To Replace Lib Dems As Third Party

Clegg: Leading the Lib Dems to political oblivion
Here's an interesting piece which argues that the splits over Europe and Cameron's leadership amongst the Tories and the inevitable fate of a junior partner in a coalition creates the ground for UKIP to prosper.

Peter Obone suggests that:
  • The reason why Conservative Party activists were heavily outnumbered by lobbyists at this year’s Conservative conference was that so many Tory activists have gone off to join UKIP, with Alexander Hesketh, the former treasurer and chief whip in the House of Lords the most recent.
  • Last Sunday’s YouGov poll showing that support for Farage’s party had crept up to 7% – just one point fewer than the Liberal Democrats - is significant as UKIP strive to take over from the Lib Dems as Britain’s third largest political party.
  • The Lib Dems are finished for the foreseeable future – the invariable fate of the smaller party in a coalition government. They will be fortunate to retain a dozen seats at the next general election.
  • UKIP will probably overtake them in the polls over the coming months, most likely pulling well ahead as the general election approaches.
  • The European elections, due in two and a half years’ time, will provide an important test: UKIP will perform very strongly, while the Lib Dems will be all but wiped out.
And as I've previously blogged the LibDems in the House of Commons could end up as an all white, all male party.

Not much sign of UKIP around Reading, but the local Tories are split and the LibDems are already in electoral melt-down at the council elections.

 

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